Heinemann und Samios sehen hinter Trumps Aussagen stabile Trends: Energiesicherheit, europäische Resilienz und der Machtkampf mit China.
Samios warnt, Energiepreise bleiben laut J.P. Morgan und Goldman Sachs lange hoch, während Heinemann zufolge Energieschocks historisch am nachhaltigsten wirken.
Project A hat in drei bis vier Jahren fast zehn Dual-Use-Investments gemacht und plant einen Fonds, der auch bewaffnete Systeme finanzieren darf.
European defence and energy security are the decade's investment story
Two European venture investors argue the current run of crises hides a more stable story. Behind Trump's statements sit trends that reach back to Obama and Biden and will run for a decade, and the investable version is European resilience, from defence to cloud and raw materials. The capital behind it is increasingly European, and founding costs have collapsed.
Takeaways
Energy prices carry the most lasting effects. Heinemann cites a study showing economies usually recover fast from crises, with the 1970s oil shock the exception. J.P. Morgan and Goldman Sachs expect today's elevated energy prices to stay high for a while.
Stable decade-long trends sit behind Trump's noise. The contest with China and America's push for primacy reach back to Obama and Biden and will run a decade or more. Energy security and European resilience matter more than Trump's daily statements.
Europe will build a few new defence primes. Heinemann expects two or three new neoprimes per European country with a serious army, not a dozen a year. Incumbents include Rheinmetall, Dassault, Airbus and KNDS, while Anduril, SpaceX, Quantum Systems and Helsing build on their own balance sheets.
Dual-use funds split at a clear threshold. Project A entered defence through partner Uwe Horstmann's secondment as CEO of Bundeswehr supplier Stark, has made nearly ten dual-use investments in three to four years, and plans a fund allowed to finance armed systems. PT1 stops at the dual-use line by fund statute.
European venture capital no longer needs US money. Project A raises 30 percent from US investors and nearly 100m euros from Nordic pension funds. PT1 gathered about a billion euros for its startups last year. KfW Capital's Jörg Koschin says European returns are not worse.
Starting a company has never been cheaper. Heinemann's team bought servers for 80,000 marks in 1999. Today Claude Code and rented cloud instances are enough, which lowers the cost of founding and makes the product manager role more relevant. He expects a new wave.
The resilience stack beyond defence
Mining and hard resources.
Space, with Isar Aerospace and a European Starlink counterpart, and OHB backed by KKR.
Cloud sovereignty, where Google, Schwarz Digital, Telekom and the data centre player Hetzner compete.
Fertiliser, whose global production Samios expects to collapse and hit many countries hard.
Food, affordable healthcare, pharma and pensions.
Europe's to-do list
Create something like EU Inc and move faster on capital markets union and exit markets.
Accept reindustrialisation in specific sectors rather than services alone.
Build European cloud providers, even if they do not match AWS or Microsoft Azure feature for feature.
Stop relying on gas, which Samios says Germany still does.
Keep strategic industrial assets in European hands, the KUKA sale to Chinese owners being the example Samios calls stupid.
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