Scott Nolan says General Matter will start with HALEU for advanced reactors, then move to low enriched uranium, aiming to deliver before 2030.
Nolan argues advanced reactors will fail mainly for lack of fuel, because enrichment is the missing step and a new private company must fill it.
Nolan says investors should avoid trends and target stagnant, oligopolistic cost-plus industries like space launch, defence and infrastructure, where competition is weakest.
Why a SpaceX veteran is rebuilding American uranium enrichment
General Matter is a bet that uranium enrichment is the missing link in American nuclear power. Energy per person drives prosperity and US supply has stalled, while advanced reactors depend on fuel only Russia makes, and the US will stop importing it in 2028. Nolan, an investor who hunts stagnant, concentrated industries, concluded that a new private company had to build the capacity.
Takeaways
Enrichment is the missing step in nuclear fuel. Nolan spent 2023 studying nuclear fuel supply and found enrichment was the bottleneck. Advanced reactor developers said their fuel comes from Russia, the only country making it. Little has changed since the 1990s and no new capacity was built in the 2010s.
The Russian import ban opens a hard deadline. Russia is about 25% of US uranium imports, and the January 2028 ban removes 20 to 25% of them. The 94 US reactors use low enriched uranium, a $2 to $2.5bn fuel market. Advanced reactors will fail mainly for lack of fuel, he predicts.
Prosperity tracks energy, and US supply has stalled. GDP per capita tracks energy use per capita closely. US grid growth has been flat since the 1990s, while China is set to produce triple US total energy this year. Data centers could consume the entire US grid by 2030 if allowed.
Nuclear should be cheap but builds run long. Nuclear is the safest, cleanest baseload power and should be among the lowest-cost sources on first principles. Reactors take 10 to 15 years and can cost double budget. One company bragged of 900 subcontractors. General Matter will build in-house instead.
Data centers can bring their own power. Nolan pictures a data center and its nuclear plant inside a fence on a few hundred acres, cut off from the grid. Micro reactors run about one megawatt, small modular reactors 100 to 300 megawatts, and grid reactors gigawatt scale at roughly $10bn.
General Matter starts with HALEU, then expands. General Matter, incubated at Founders Fund, begins with HALEU for advanced reactors, then moves to low enriched uranium. It tracks dollars per kilogram of separative work unit, builds its team in Southern California and aims to deliver before decade's end. Peter Thiel joined the board.
Nolan's investing rules from Founders Fund
Avoid trends, because competition exists at both the company level and the theme level. Target stagnated, oligopolistic cost-plus industries such as space launch, defence and infrastructure.
Do not fall in love with an idea. Without the right team it fails about 90% of the time, though founders must be passionate about the problem.
Value deals in true venture are dangerous, since a low price often signals the company cannot raise capital at market prices.
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On this episode 2
Show 1
Investors anchor to the last round's price, although they are paid against exit price. Thiel's maxim says the steeper the up round, the greater the undervaluation.
Founders Fund made a small angel investment in Airbnb, then a much bigger one in the next round.