Leslie Vinjamuri Talks Midterms in Relation to Iran

Midterms Turn on the Cost of the Iran War

The US midterms landed the morning of this conversation, and the question is what they said about the Iran war and what Trump does next. Vinjamuri's read is that voters were reacting to the war's cost of living, not to foreign policy as a doctrine, which leaves the president free to keep or drop the strikes. She thinks he does not love disruption and may use the moment to step back, while Congress can only make noise.

Takeaways

• Iran war shaped midterms through everyday costs. Vinjamuri says the results were certainly about the Iran war, but only because the war has affected people's everyday lives so deeply. Driving a car across the Midwest is much more expensive than it used to be, and voters felt that cost directly.
• This was not a foreign policy election. She does not see it as a huge foreign policy election. Corruption mattered, and people have generally been unhappy with a US foreign policy they find disruptive and personally costly. She doubts the vote turned on the Western hemisphere or US policy there.
• Trump is unsure about new decisive strikes. Even before the midterm results there were signs that Trump was not so sure about a new round of decisive strikes. Vinjamuri points to the administration pushing down on negotiations rather than escalating the military campaign.
• Middle East venue signals no bombing plan. Talks about Russia and Ukraine were scheduled to take place in the Middle East not long after the midterms. Vinjamuri says that is not a location you would choose if you were planning to bomb hard.
• Trump wary of war despite Israel funding halt. The previous day brought a surprise announcement that funding for Israel, including military assistance, would be stopped. Vinjamuri describes a president who, despite his actions, does not love war or disruption, and asks whether he now dials down kinetic action.
• Rubio may glide through the Iran moment. Rubio has not been the face of the Iran war, so he sits in the rear view at the moment. Vinjamuri suggests he might glide right through a period that is consuming others in the administration, without taking the damage.
• Congress will fight spending, president keeps power. Once the new Congress is sworn in, which is not for some time, Vinjamuri expects it to restrict appropriations, hold money back, make things harder and create more noise. She stresses the president still has tremendous executive authority.