Darren Farber argues winning in Iran is politically defined, with the Strait of Hormuz reopening as the economic test for commerce to function.
Farber says regime change is extremely hard under a martyrdom culture without an alternative power structure for defectors, even if most Iranians want change.
Farber says neoprime defense companies like Anduril will only prove themselves in war, and urges Congress to shift budget toward industry and multi-year contracts.
Why Iran and China look strong but may fall
Farber argues the US faces adversaries that look strong but are brittle, and that its edge is legitimacy. Winning is defined politically, and fanatical cultures that count death as victory cannot be beaten by pressure alone. Staying ahead needs deeper stockpiles and a defense industry proven in war.
Takeaways
Winning in Iran is a political definition. The Strait of Hormuz was open before the contingency and must reopen for commerce to work. The internal order was to degrade Iranian military capability, which Farber believes has largely happened. Conventional wisdom says America can withstand less economic pain than its counterparty.
Martyrdom cultures make regime change very hard. The Shariati school blends Marxism and martyrdom, so dying counts as winning. Japan surrendered only after two bombs and Hirohito's decision. Even if 85 or 90 percent of Iranians want change, defection needs an alternative power structure.
Iran's regime is both strong and weak. The IRGC controls half the economy and holds assets in Western Europe, per Abbas Milani. Ordinary Iranians face a seven-dollar ATM limit after the second-largest bank failed. Khamenei potentially killed 30,000 or 40,000 of his own people.
China is brittle and likely to fall. China turned over its senior military leadership three or four times in three years. Farber calls its structure illegitimate and predicts China and Iran fall in his lifetime, as the Soviet Union did. Taiwan may fall without a shot.
Neoprime defense firms must prove themselves in war. Ukrainian drones were commercial products that became cheap weapons and iterate fast in a real contingent environment. Neoprimes such as Anduril are new and have not fielded systems of record, so exercising their products in war is the test.
Funding rhythm blocks munitions stockpile depth. The US needs magazine depth, meaning stockpiles of munitions. Funding runs on one-year appropriations and four or five continuing resolutions a year, so industry lacks the visibility to build. Multi-year contracts are essential.
Fanaticism and disinformation test democracies. Dresden shows fanaticism pushes democracies to question their moral fiber. Adversaries amplify disinformation through social media under cover of free speech, and Hamas plans to co-opt Western universities over twenty years. AI models can be poisoned by fabricated academic papers.
Farber's proposed fixes
Repoint part of the FFRDC budget toward industry.
Allocate a larger share of the $1.5tn FY27 budget to risk, perhaps a couple of hundred basis points of GDP. The Manhattan Project was 1% of GDP.
Tap a name to go there · tap a line to see why they are linked
On this episode 2
Show 1
Make precision weapons cheaper through targeting networks and signals intelligence software.
Invest in positive propaganda for Israel, and build staying power beyond election cycles to win over Iranian public opinion.