Brazil’s Election Comeback and What America Can Learn

Lula's comeback and Brazil's conservative turn

Brazil's election is a study in how a weakened incumbent can come back and still face a hostile country. Lula trailed in the polls and lost the first round, then won the runoff with a late digital army and a costly spending package. Voters also elected the most conservative congress in decades, and the economy feels worse than its numbers. Winter also notes a 2024 US parallel with Biden and Harris.

Takeaways

• Lula wins runoff after first-round loss. Lula beat Flávio Bolsonaro 51.8% to 48.2%, becoming Brazil's first four-term president and the first candidate since 1989 to lose the first round and win the runoff. Polls had Flávio ahead by six points.
• Brazil remains a conservative country. Voters elected the most conservative congress since democracy returned, and Jair Bolsonaro's party and allies are set to control both chambers. Lula has tacked right on social issues, refusing to touch abortion rights because 70% or more Brazilians oppose it.
• Economic data hides voter frustration. Unemployment is at record lows and wages are growing, yet 49% of Brazilians said in September the economy had worsened and only 19% said it improved. Nearly four in ten workers are informal. Almost 2m drive for apps, and 84m are behind on payments.
• Corruption is systemic and still central. Lava Jato in the 2010s and the Banco Master scandal this year frame Brazilian politics. Flávio Bolsonaro is under investigation and appears to have fled, and voters on both sides now assume their own candidate is tainted.
• Lula's comeback is not replicable. Brian Winter says no other Latin American politician resembles Lula, whose career runs from the 1979 metalworkers' strike through three lost presidential races to victory in 2002. Politicians across the region are asking about his digital campaign, but they lack his biography.
• Brazil's long-term opportunities are real. Winter rejects the idea of Brazil as pure potential but sees concrete strengths. It is number one in beef and soy and the biggest oil producer in Latin America. It is also a major iron ore exporter.
• Trump tariffs may have backfired. Donald Trump's 50% tariffs on Brazil, tied to Jair Bolsonaro's prosecution, helped turn a weakened incumbent into a nationalist hero. Winter compares the effect to Trump's tariffs on Canada, which helped Mark Carney win.

Lula's runoff playbook

1. A constitutional amendment ended the six-day workweek.
2. Bolsa Família payments were increased six days before the vote.
3. Gasoline taxes were cut.
4. A debt relief programme was launched.