Tom Lee says the correction is over, predicting a 15% Nasdaq 100 rally and an S&P 500 of 8,200 to 8,400.
Apple reports record $115bn revenue in first earnings under CEO John Ternus, but iPhone Duo screens are cracking.
Lee calls circular AI financing ecosystem development, not a bubble, and sees SpaceX as a long-term winner.
Tom Lee predicts sharp year-end rally after correction
Guest interviews
Tom Lee, cofounder and head of research at Fundstrat Global Advisors. Lee says the market bottom is likely in and predicts the Nasdaq 100 will rally at least 15% by year end, with the S&P 500 reaching 8,200 to 8,400. He calls AI innovation real, not a bubble, and says circular financing is ecosystem development. He sees long-term AI winners as second-wave downstream companies like SpaceX or Apple rather than OpenAI and Anthropic. He attributes the correction to war, oil-driven inflation, AI funding worries and election uncertainty.
Patrick McGee, journalist and author of Apple in China. McGee says Apple's first earnings under CEO John Ternus showed revenue up 12% to $115bn and holiday guidance of 7% to 10% growth with lower margins. The $1,999 iPhone Duo's cracking screens are a problem, but defect data is thin, and Apple's real AI edge is on-device silicon and Mac Studio hardware. The iPhone remains the product, so Apple needs no next big thing. He says smart glasses will likely augment the smartphone rather than replace it.
News
Apple reports record September quarter. Apple's first earnings under CEO John Ternus showed revenue up 12% to $115bn, with holiday guidance of 7% to 10% growth and lower margins. Ed Elson said investors reacted coolly, and it trades at 36 times forward earnings.
Nasdaq 100 enters correction territory. The Nasdaq 100 fell 10% from its October peak, its worst month since March. The S&P 500 bounced from the prior sell-off, and ten-year Treasury yields rose after job openings hit a four-month high. Apple weighed on the Dow.
AI trade shows signs of unwinding. Memory stocks are down almost 50% and the AI trade is down more than 20%, Tom Lee said. Ed Elson said it looked like the AI trade could be starting to unwind.
Anthropic growth slows. Anthropic's third-quarter growth slowed to around 47% to 50%, and ramp data suggests around 25% next quarter, Ed Elson said. Tom Lee blamed revenue policies and compared OpenAI and Anthropic to Netscape and Cisco.
iPhone Duo screens crack after launch. The $1,999 foldable went on sale October 23, and customers reported screens cracking within hours or days. Apple is struggling to make enough units, and Ed Elson called the rollout shaky and very un-Apple-like. The extent is unknown.
US midterm results remain unknown. Elections took place the Tuesday before the episode, with results not in when it was recorded. Ed Elson predicted a Democratic sweep and called it a referendum on President Trump. Tom Lee predicted markets would be in relief mode.
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On this episode 3
Show 1
Job openings hit four-month high. Job openings rose to a four-month high, pushing ten-year Treasury yields higher. Brent crude fell and Apple weighed on the Dow.