Key points
- Greenhouse CFO Paul Todgham says applications per organization are up 129% and per recruiter 185%, an AI hiring "doom loop."
- Greenhouse's answer is Real Talent, its Ezra Labs acquisition and Ezra voice AI, as Gartner projects one in four applicants fraudulent by 2028.
- Todgham says AI interviews cut a 50-to-60-minute phone screen to five minutes and lift screening from 20 to 60 candidates.
AI Floods Hiring and Greenhouse Bets on Better Tools
AI has flooded hiring. Application volumes have exploded, candidates use AI to apply, trust is falling, and fraud is projected to reach one in four applicants by 2028. Greenhouse's bet is that better tools can keep humans at the center, with AI running top-of-funnel interviews while people make final calls. The CFO's job is to prove those tools pay off without simply counting hours saved.
Takeaways
- AI applications overwhelm hiring teams. Greenhouse data shows applications per organization up 129% versus three years ago and applications per recruiter up about 185%. A survey found 74% of candidates use AI in their job search. Trust in hiring has declined for 46%, and 42% blame AI.
- Fraud is rising in applicant pools. Todgham cites a Gartner survey projecting one in four applicants will be fraudulent by 2028, ranging from state-sponsored schemes to AI-faked interviews. Greenhouse's Real Talent suite includes fraud detection and identity verification.
- Greenhouse keeps humans at the center. Its answer is better tools for hiring. Real Talent launched in February for matching and fraud detection. It also handles identity verification. Greenhouse acquired Ezra Labs in May, and its voice AI agent Ezra runs top-of-funnel interviews.
- AI interviews meet little candidate resistance. Candidates know ahead of time that they are talking to AI. The opt-out rate is about 10%, and interviewees rate the experience 4.5 out of five. Todgham says for over 80% of candidates the alternative is being discarded on a short resume.
- AI pricing pairs tiers with value. Greenhouse bundles AI features into tiers and charges consumption only in the upper tail. AI interviewing is priced on value. A phone screen that takes a team 50 to 60 minutes becomes five minutes of review, and the AI screens 60 candidates instead of 20.
- CFOs should rank sub-functions, not backfills. People costs are typically about 70% of an operating budget. Todgham recommends stack-ranking sub-functions rather than debating a single backfill, because hiring managers approve backfills 90% of the time and spending two months to justify one role costs new business.
- AI ROI is hard without headcount cuts. Todgham says demonstrating AI ROI is hard when everyone is 10% more productive but the company is not losing bodies. He tracks AI costs and anchors on cost as a percent of revenue by function. Each function gets a few AI impact metrics.
The surges and savings exercise
- Leaders who deliver a budget on target also rank the investments they would fund with 5% more, from highest to lowest priority.