Nikhyl Singhal says the product industry is very much in stress, with the information-mover role becoming obsolete even as open PM roles hit a three-year high.
Singhal predicts that within two years most companies will automate the mechanical parts of building product, multiplying product changes 10 to 100 times and making judgment the core PM skill.
Singhal predicts companies will shed and then rehire staff over the next 12 to 24 months, and argues that how modern a candidate is now counts more than past employers like Meta.
AI is splitting product management into builders and the obsolete
Product management is splitting in two. Builders with strong judgment are at peak pay and demand, while PMs who mainly move information are losing their footing. Singhal expects AI to automate the mechanical work of building product within two years, multiplying the number of changes someone must judge. Those who learn to build with the new tools will do well, and the rest face a wave of layoffs and rehiring.
Takeaways
Information-mover PMs are becoming obsolete. Singhal says the industry is under stress even though open PM roles are at a three-year high, per Lenny's job-market report. PMs who mainly relay information between teams lose value as AI automates that work.
Judgment becomes the scarce PM skill. Singhal predicts most companies will automate the mechanical parts of building product within two years, producing 10 to 100 times more changes. Someone must decide whether each change is good and worth building, and he calls that judgment.
Massive layoffs and rehiring are coming. Over 12 to 24 months Singhal expects companies to shed many staff and rehire AI-first people, for example cutting 30,000 and hiring 8,000. He argues headcount may have doubled in five years and most roles are overhead.
Strong builders thrive but everyone is exhausted. Compensation for the strongest builders is at an all-time high with more offers than ever. Singhal also calls this the most tired he has seen product management, a smiling exhaustion with everyone on alert.
Modern skills now outweigh brand-name résumés. Singhal says how modern someone is at delivering product matters more than past employers. A two-year Meta stint improving an algorithm falls flat when the conversation turns to working in the future.
Reinvention is hard, so start by building. People are told to change less with age, top past performers resist change most, and those in their power years feel forced to disappoint everyone. Singhal says to cross the threshold and find joy building with Claude Code or Codex.
PMs add value through internal tools, not code. Responding to the view that engineers are squeezing PMs, Singhal says a PM who adds code is a cheap knockoff of an engineer. Real leverage comes from tools replacing status reports and reviews.
Where Singhal and Lenny push back
Lenny presses Singhal on what judgment means in practice, since the term is easy to invoke and hard to pin down.
Lenny finds it surprising that Singhal is bullish on design while his report shows design roles plateauing. Singhal says companies confuse design with production rather than taste.
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On this episode 2
Show 1
Lenny doubts that AI lab leaders such as Demis and Sam Altman would slow down, even if reportedly they would if everyone agreed.