Fareed Zakaria says the midterms could be the first significant breach in a decade of right-wing populism.
Trump's 2024 coalition has receded, with Hispanic support down nearly 20 points and young and minority gains gone.
Zakaria calls the Iran war the first war unpopular from day one in American history, tied to inflation and executive overreach.
The Midterms Could Be Where the Populist Tide Peaks
The midterms could be the first breach in a decade of right-wing populism. Zakaria reads that wave as a reaction to thirty years of accelerating technological, economic and cultural change, and says its cultural pull outlasts Trump's failed policies even as his coalition recedes. What remains is an angry country and an unpopular war tied to prices, while allies hedge and India becomes the prize.
Takeaways
The populist tide may have peaked. Zakaria says the midterms could be the first breach in ten years of right-wing populism. Pauline Hanson is back in Australia, but Trump's 2024 Hispanic surge has collapsed by close to 20 points and gains among Black men and young voters have evaporated.
Only 38 House seats are competitive. Gerrymandering has left 38 competitive seats, less turnover than the old Soviet legislature, but Zakaria says a 12-point Democratic wave could make the map backfire on Republicans. Galloway notes South Carolina and Kansas are suddenly in play.
The Iran war is unpopular from day one. Zakaria calls it the most unpopular war in American history and the first to be unpopular from the start. It ties directly to inflation and pocketbook worries, and gives Democrats an opening to rein in an executive that can act without congressional approval.
Allies are hedging as US reliability fades. Canada's Mark Carney is cutting deals with China, and India keeps 80% of its weapons sourced from Russia. India's big order went to French fighter planes rather than American ones, AUKUS is in doubt, and Zakaria says only India has the scale to offset China.
The West's edge is equal rights. Answering Marco Rubio's Athens speech, Zakaria says Genghis Khan and the German Reich had raw power and resourcefulness. What sets the West apart is the Enlightenment idea that all human beings have equal rights and that the individual is sacrosanct.
Ukraine peace means pressuring the victim. Zakaria says the path to peace runs through pressuring the Ukrainians rather than the Russians, and calls the opposite approach politically stupid and morally obtuse. He calls Russia's invasion of a liberal democracy the central moral struggle and says Trump has abandoned Ukraine.
Musk is an engineer out of his depth. Galloway calls Musk a traitor to the West for throttling Starlink in Ukraine, and Zakaria agrees he is a great engineer with poor political judgment, criticizing his DOGE cuts and his Johannesburg tweet. A plea to Mukesh Ambani over Starlink in India backfired.
The Democratic Playbook
Galloway proposes Democrats pass a Ukraine resolution and force Trump to veto it. Zakaria endorses the idea.
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On this episode 2
Show 1
Replace Trump's roughly 7,000 tariff rates with a single 5% to 7% tariff on all imports, a consumption tax that would lower prices.
Hakeem Jeffries and Chuck Schumer need four or five totemic bills.
Fifteen to 20 Democrats are likely to run for president.