Vélez argues financial services is still early in its shift to digital banks, with about 90% of the roughly $10tn global consumer market still run by incumbents and branches.
Nubank has fully surpassed Brazil's biggest incumbent bank, serving close to 120m customers, with about 60% using it as their primary account.
Vélez says Nubank's cost to serve a customer is about 3% of a traditional incumbent's, and AI will bring private-banker-level advice to ordinary people.
Nubank's founder says banking's digital shift has barely begun
Vélez argues that banking is at the start of a Blockbuster-to-Netflix shift, and that Nubank is positioned as the digital winner. A cost base a fraction of incumbents', plus years of proprietary customer data and AI, lets it serve people banks cannot reach profitably. The remaining question is whether it can repeat the playbook beyond its first three countries.
Takeaways
Financial services is still early in digital shift. Global consumer financial services is roughly a $10tn industry, about 90% still run through branches and incumbents. All neobanks and fintechs together hold under 10%. Vélez expects a large share shift over ten to twenty years, with 3bn people still lacking credit.
Nubank's cost to serve is far lower. Nubank serves 140m customers with 10,000 employees, against a competitor with 100m customers, 100,000 staff and 6,000 branches. Vélez puts its cost to serve near 3% of an incumbent's, with return on equity two to three times higher despite no fees.
Opportunity splits into access, cost and intelligence. Access reaches people outside banking. Cost attacks $15tn of US deposits earning about 40 basis points, around $600bn funding branches, plus 5% to 10% remittance fees. Intelligence brings private-banker-style advice to ordinary people, such as refinancing a 10% loan at 5%.
Data and systems form the moat, not scale alone. Nubank holds 20,000 to 30,000 data points per customer over thirteen years and built its own credit foundation model after buying Hyperplane. Vélez says data only matters with the right systems and culture, while incumbents run 15 systems and COBOL mainframes.
Licences protect banks from AI-native startups. Vélez expects AI-native startups to win on speed, but a bank licence takes two to three years and needs regulator approval. That barrier, plus proprietary data, gives regulated operators like Nubank room to absorb the new technology.
Nubank is restructuring itself around AI. After coding models handled Clojure in December 2025, Nubank mapped 120 workflows to reinvent with AI. It moved to hybrid work and cut management layers from ten to five. Vélez now has 20 direct reports, up from one, to stay closer to facts.
Currencies and cash are heading toward consolidation. Vélez predicts about 190 currencies could shrink to roughly 10 within ten to twenty years. Dollar stablecoins could help the dollar keep reserve status. Digital records let small merchants, who are 70% of Brazil's employment, build credit histories.
Bear and bull cases for Nubank
Bear case: Nubank saturates its three countries, runs out of Brazilians and fails to internationalise.
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On this episode 2
Show 1
Bull case: Nubank operates in 100 countries with a cost structure around 50 times better than competitors.
Mexico is early evidence for the bull case. The playbook exported better than expected, and Nubank is now the second largest bank there and the largest digital bank.
In the US, Vélez names building a strong brand cheaply as the hardest challenge, since consumers cite brand when choosing a bank.