Anthropic's public S-1 shows first-half revenue of $16.3bn, up about fourteen times year over year, and a second-quarter operating profit of $974m.
Dave McClure says the filing looks operating-profitable for two quarters but flags over $500bn in capital spending and more than $100bn in locked-in Google and Amazon commitments.
D.A. Wallach says the S-1 shows customers spend only about 0.1% of operating expenses on AI, which he reads as large headroom for growth.
Anthropic's S-1 impresses investors, but nobody agrees what it means
Anthropic's public S-1 shows fast revenue growth, two quarters of operating profit and a large loss that is mostly non-cash. The panel finds the numbers impressive but disagrees on how to read them. Run rate, spending commitments and customer adoption are hard to interpret for a business selling compute across models whose prices fall.
Takeaways
Anthropic's S-1 shows profit and huge growth. First-half revenue reached $16.3bn, up about fourteen times from a year earlier, with a $974m operating profit in the second quarter. The Wall Street Journal reports an IPO the week of November 16, raising $100bn or more.
The $80.7bn loss is mostly non-cash. A $72.4bn charge on convertible notes, derivative liabilities and SAFEs is remeasured as valuation rises. Dave McClure still flags over $500bn of capital spending and more than $100bn of locked-in commitments to Google and Amazon.
Panelists disagree on whether revenue is plateauing. Dave McClure questions whether growth is stalling as OpenAI and open-weight models take share, citing Replit's switch to OpenAI. Jason Calacanis disputes that reading, noting the flat $76.8bn run rate is company-wide and differs from subscription ARR.
Public analysts lack measures for this business. Ben Black says analysts need new metrics for companies selling compute across models whose prices fall. He cites 900% net revenue retention and admits he does not yet understand the business. Aaron Battalion, via Dave McClure, says revenue from mathematics and medicine breakthroughs goes unmeasured.
AI spending is tiny, so headroom may be vast. The S-1 shows customers spend about 0.1% of operating expenses on AI. D.A. Wallach reads that as either large headroom or adoption limited by utility, and notes Altria and Philip Morris were the best stock of the past century. Jason says leaders spend around 2%.
Panel splits on Amodei's motives. D.A. Wallach argues investors cannot believe Dario Amodei is sincere. Dave McClure thinks he believes the mission and also wants money, and sees Sam Altman as an ambitious venture capitalist. Ben Black says Altman was right that compute must be locked up.
What the panel expects next
D.A. Wallach expects Microsoft and Google to grow bigger, with Oracle possibly winning, and calls Larry Ellison's $400bn capital bet a risk.
Dave McClure expects productivity gains as AI moves up the stack and guesses Anthropic reaches a $150 to $200bn run rate next year.
D.A. Wallach predicts the best founders will need less money and that small funds will profit from the next Anthropics.
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On this episode 5
Show 1
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