Anthony Pompliano says Bitcoin's network hash rate is back near all-time highs even as miners shifted to AI and HPC data centers, which he cites as proof the bear market is over.
Anthony Pompliano says Strive and Strategy's perpetual preferred shares have created net new Bitcoin demand, with over 135,000 Bitcoin bought that way.
Anthony Pompliano is skeptical of Anthropic's public messaging, arguing its planned 5 to 20% public share giveaway looks like power accumulation next to Elon Musk's pledge to give SpaceX shares directly to children.
Pompliano bets AI abundance makes Bitcoin's scarcity more valuable
Anthony Pompliano argues that AI is an abundance technology, so scarce assets like Bitcoin gain value as it spreads. The market is calling Bitcoin dead while hash rate and institutional demand say otherwise, and that gap is where convicted investors profit. He backs AI as a business, Anthropic included, but distrusts Anthropic's moral claims and its governance.
Takeaways
Bitcoin's fundamentals contradict the 'Bitcoin is dead' narrative. Hash rate is back near all-time highs even though many miners moved to HPC and AI data centres. Fidelity research shows Strategy and Strive perpetual preferreds created net new demand of over 135,000 Bitcoin, with roughly 800,000 held in ETFs.
Anthony believes the bear market is over. Bitcoin fell from about $125,000 to about $60,000, a drop of roughly 50%, then recovered. From the $80,000 to $85,000 range, a return to all-time highs would be about 50%. He expects $1m eventually, though not next year.
AI is offence, Bitcoin is defence. Anthony now puts roughly half of his pay into Bitcoin and half into AI. After past drawdowns of 85%, he sees Bitcoin as less risky, with perhaps 30% a year compounded against 10 to 15% for stocks.
Anthropic's economics look exceptional on paper. Anthropic has filed an S-1 and could be the first large AI company to list. Anthony says it appears to have burned under $10bn for possibly $75 to $100bn of annual revenue, and that its success would help Bitcoin.
Anthropic's governance gives power without skin in the game. Polina found Buddy Shah on page 145 of the S-1. He chairs the long-term benefit trust, which can appoint and remove board members, yet holds no stock. Anthony notes public-company independent directors are paid in equity.
Anthropic's public giveaway looks like power accumulation. Anthropic plans to give 5 to 20% of the company to the public. Anthony contrasts this with Michael Dell's $5 billion-plus Invest America gift and Elon Musk's SpaceX share per American child, and challenges Anthropic to give shares directly to children.
Tying identity to Bitcoin clouds judgment. Anthony's biggest Bitcoin regret is adding laser eyes to his Twitter profile in 2021. He says he can believe 30 to 40% of a visionary's view without tipping into the psychosis he sees in both Bitcoin and AI circles.
Anthony and Polina on fearing AI
Polina says Anthropic is responding to real public fear of massive AI companies, and that AI differs from past technology because it could be sentient. She questions why one disinterested trustee should hold so much power.
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On this episode 2
Show 1
Anthony asks for a harmful technology the market never corrected. He cites tobacco and counts regulation as part of the market. He calls rogue robots implausible and says AI helped the couple confirm a doctor was wrong about their twins' complications.