Jacob Helberg says the US will not run government-operated supply chains and will instead build commercially viable platforms with private companies that can later operate as private services.
Pax Silica, a 14-country economic security coalition, gets its first concrete step in a 4,000-acre Philippines industrial zone treated as diplomatic property, with two years to negotiate investor protections and taxation.
Helberg frames Belt and Road as a debt trap that converts defaulted debt into Chinese equity, contrasting it with US joint ventures built for commercial viability and positive-sum partnership.
US Bets Private Capital Can Out-Build China's State Supply Chains
The Trump administration is trying to secure the AI supply chain through Pax Silica, a 14-country economic security coalition that pairs diplomacy with private capital. Helberg sets this against China's Belt and Road, arguing joint ventures built for commercial viability beat state-led projects that end in debt traps. The bet is that AI demand keeps growing the pie, so allies gain by building chips, minerals and robotics capacity with the US.
Takeaways
US will build supply chains with private companies. Helberg says the US will not run government operated supply chains. The State Department instead works in lockstep with companies to build commercially viable platforms that can later run as private services, with the 14-country Pax Silica coalition as the vehicle.
Belt and Road is the model to avoid. The US studied 25 years of the program. Helberg says state owned enterprises, central planning, vendor overcharging and roads to nowhere wasted money, and debt converts to Chinese equity on default. The US offers true joint ventures built for commercial viability.
AI demand makes partnership positive sum. AI fuels over a third of US GDP growth and drives demand for copper, cobalt and electricians abroad. Helberg argues the tech pie is growing, so partners gain. Pax Silica will also widen market access for American companies in Japan, South Korea and India.
Reindustrializing the US depends on heavy automation. The US consumes roughly 20 to 30 percent of global consumption with about 4 percent of world population. With unemployment at 4 percent, narrowing that gap needs high automation. Rebuilding US fab production is underway and should finish before replication in hubs such as Africa and South America.
Refining, not rare earths, is the bottleneck. Helberg says rare earths are not truly rare, but processing facilities outside China are very limited. The administration invests in projects, negotiates demand side pricing deals, and signed MOUs with dozens of countries. He is confident pricing resolves before the administration ends.
Government wants venture capitalists to vet founders. Helberg asks VCs to help assess founders, because personality is hard to read from a deck or spreadsheet, so government capital is better targeted. He points to Bay Area companies making rare earth free magnets, and seeks builder input on model distillation.
America is an underdog nation, not an incumbent. Helberg rejects Graham Allison's framing of America as the established power, citing 13 disorganized colonies and a COVID vaccine developed in under a year. He sees Silicon Valley founders hearing no 45 times before a yes as that spirit.
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On this episode 3
Show 1
Philippines industrial zone in phases
The Philippines grants 4,000 acres, roughly a third the size of Manhattan, announced about a week and a half before the interview.
Phase one has the State Department take custody. The land is diplomatic property governed by the same laws as US embassies.
Phase two gives both countries two years to negotiate investor protections, taxation and legal safeguards.
The target is a multi-decade framework, making this the first platform of its kind open to private investment.
Helberg picks the Philippines for its deep indigenous manufacturing and values alignment, with China-dominated robotics supply chains a priority.