Scott Nolan of General Matter says a cutoff of Russian enriched uranium would force utilities to scramble, raising prices and risking brownouts, since enrichment capacity cannot ramp overnight.
A Congressional ban on Russian uranium imports takes effect January 1, 2028, and Nolan says the bipartisan law is unlikely to be reversed.
The US shut its last government-owned gaseous diffusion enrichment plant in Paducah, Kentucky, in 2013, a choice Nolan says undervalued domestic capacity, and General Matter now aims to be online at Paducah before 2030.
Rebuilding US uranium enrichment before the Russian ban bites
General Matter is a bet that the US can rebuild the uranium enrichment it gave up in 2013. Russian imports are banned from 2028, China's share is growing, and advanced reactors need fuel no US company makes. Nolan argues enrichment is ripe for redesign and that SpaceX-style speed can cut its cost at least in half.
Takeaways
A Russian uranium cutoff would hurt quickly. Utilities would draw down inventories, then buy from Europe and perhaps China. Enrichment capacity is fixed, so losing roughly 20 to 25% of supply means scrambling, higher prices and possible brownouts. Congress already bans Russian imports from 1 January 2028, when waivers expire.
The US chose to give up enrichment. The US pioneered enrichment for the Manhattan Project with gaseous diffusion plants including Oak Ridge and Paducah. It closed its last plant, Paducah, in 2013, relying on imports in the free-trade era. Nolan says that undervalued domestic capacity.
Fuel, not licensing, blocks advanced reactors. A reactor company backed by Founders Fund told Nolan that fuel supply was the real obstacle. No US company makes HALEU, the 19.75% fuel advanced designs need, though the process is fundamentally the same as for 3% to 5%.
General Matter aims to halve enrichment costs. Nobody has fully re-architected enrichment in over thirty years, and Nolan sees easy potential for a 2x cost cut. The company chose Paducah, Kentucky after surveying over 1,000 parcels, targets operation before 2030, and staffs mostly with software and mechanical engineers rather than nuclear PhDs.
China is pulling ahead on fuel and reactors. China holds around 15% of global enrichment, which Nolan says could reach 30% within a decade. It is building roughly 28 to 30 reactors against perhaps two in the US, and Russia and China design most reactors built abroad because they supply fuel.
Back founders and take on hard problems. Nolan says the best bet is letting founders run their companies, the Founders Fund view since 2011. He closes by arguing that harder problems attract better people, and that a really hard company can be easier to build than an easy one.
SpaceX lessons General Matter applies
Cost-plus incentives slowed Nolan's Boeing project, so the company keeps work in house and avoids contracts that reward spending over speed.
The idiot index compares a rocket's cost with its raw materials, and a large gap shows where cost can be cut.
Run steps in parallel instead of in sequence.
If a decision is easily reversible, go ahead rather than deliberate.
Spending to save time usually lands somewhere between current burn and future revenue.
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