How are schools and agents adapting to rising visa rejection rates?

Canada refuses half of all study permits

Guest interviews

• Michal Sestak, managing director and principal migration agent at AustraliaOnline. Michal Sestak blames Australia's visa refusals on politics, noting Colombian student numbers rose from about 6,000 a year before COVID to 24,600 in the 2023 financial year, and says the government let students in without checking financials and is now over-correcting. Only licensed migration agents or lawyers may give visa advice there, and the student visa turns on one document, the Genuine Student requirement. He says the ESOS Act treats agents as salesmen, leaving schools liable, and wants stable rules.
• Shawn Silverstone, director of international marketing and recruitment at the Coquitlam School District. Shawn Silverstone says visa unpredictability has slowed new K-12 enrolments, with families delaying applications or choosing the UK or the US, and agents struggling to promote Canada. He wants transparent, consistent decisions and faster K-12 processing. On diversification he names Chile, Colombia, France, Switzerland, the Nordics, Thailand, Taiwan, Hong Kong and Macau as emerging markets, and his district runs regular agent training and documentation checklists.

News

• Canada refuses 52% of study permits. Canada refused 52% of study permit applications in 2024, up from just over 38% the year before, Craig Riggs says. Processing delays are worsening as governments under-invest in visa systems.
• Visa refusals drive school and agency closures. Martijn van de Veen says higher rejection rates have contributed to high profile school and agency closures, partly because they relied on projected visa approval rates. New pre-paid student fee policies have followed.
• Survey finds a shift to managed recruitment. A Nous Group and Navitas survey of 200 university executives in three destinations finds a shift from a market era to a managed era. Craig Riggs says recruitment now targets students most likely to get a visa and graduate.
• British Council flags five trends for 2025. The British Council's East Asia office lists five trends for 2025. Craig Riggs highlights China's shift to postgraduate study amid high youth unemployment and India's surge between 2020 and 2024, which should cool this year.
• Agent regulation falls to the industry. Craig Riggs says governments are largely disengaged from education agents and formal regulation is thin. He points to ICEF's agency status and the US AIRC program as the main accreditation schemes, with self-regulation the practical path.
• East Africa splits sending and receiving markets. Craig Riggs says Africa is many markets rather than one, with rising outbound flows to Europe, Asia and the Americas alongside established intra-regional mobility. Uganda balances inbound and outbound while Rwanda remains mainly a sending market.