PIMCO's Cantrill Maps Democratic Wave and Its Limits
Libby Cantrill reads the Democratic midterm wave as a 1974-style referendum on the executive branch rather than a 2006 repeat. Democrats will have large majorities but nothing close to veto-proof ones, so they must balance oversight and affordability with governing and compromise. The lame duck session before December 11 is the first test, with defense authorization and government funding on the table, and permitting reform could gain traction.
Takeaways
- Midterms resemble 1974 referendum, not 2006. Cantrill says the result is a total referendum against the executive branch, with talk of 40 to 50 seats flipping and a Democrat winning Nevada's 2nd District for the first time since it was created about 45 years ago.
- Democratic majorities fall far short of veto-proof. Even with roughly 258 House seats and 55 Senate seats, Cantrill notes a veto override needs 290 and 67. President Trump remains in the White House, so Democrats cannot overturn his veto.
- Democrats must govern, not only investigate. Cantrill says oversight and impeachment of Pete Hegseth cannot be the whole strategy. With 55 Senate seats, Democrats have to show voters they can govern, which creates a window for deals with the president.
- Schumer recruited candidates tailored to local dynamics. Cantrill credits Chuck Schumer with backing candidates who fit their states rather than a national purity test, citing Talarico in Texas and Annie Andrews in South Carolina. She welcomes a more moderate caucus with more Blue Dogs.
- Tariffs and Russia sanctions can override veto. Cantrill says tariffs on Canada could reach veto-proof majorities after the rebuke in the upper Midwest, and Russia sanctions could too because they upset Republicans and Democrats on the Hill. Other legislation still needs Republican votes.
- Filibuster forces Democrats toward compromise. The filibuster is not going anywhere, so most legislation needs a filibuster-proof majority. Cantrill would be very surprised if Democrats did not pivot to compromising with the president on at least some things.
Inside the lame duck session
- The session before the December 11 deadline will handle the National Defense Authorization Act and government funding as blocking and tackling.
- Permitting reform could gain traction because it lets traditional energy assets be built while cutting red tape for renewables and electricity.
- Republicans leaving office want to drill in Alaska, but they still need a bipartisan Senate vote. Democrats may join because they want to clear the decks.
- Members who lost their seats may not return, though Congress keeps working until January. Many share roommates to afford two homes, and pay has not risen since the early 2000s.