Futuresource Consulting released its 2025 ISE report, a 40 to 50 page document, as a free download, unusual for a firm whose detailed reports are typically paywalled.
Ted Romanowitz says mass-transferred chip on board LED could cut the average price of 1.5 millimetre and below LED by up to 50 percent within about twelve months.
Futuresource models micro LED chip on glass 77 or 80 inch displays at $4,000 or less by the early 2030s, bringing LED to price parity with LCD within several years.
Cheaper chip manufacturing puts LED on course to overtake LCD
LED is about to get much cheaper. Moving from packaged LEDs to mass-transferred chiplets on board and eventually glass strips out manufacturing cost, and Futuresource expects that to push LED past LCD in signage and meeting rooms over the next few years. The image quality is already there, so price is what decides adoption.
Takeaways
Mass transfer could halve fine-pitch LED prices. For twenty years LED displays used packaged chips picked and placed onto a PCB. Mass-transferred chiplets such as chip on board move thousands of pixels at once and skip packaging. Ted Romanowitz expects prices at 1.5 millimetres and below to fall up to 50 percent within about twelve months.
Micro LED on glass nears LCD price parity. Modelling with large OEMs and ODMs puts a 77 or 80 inch micro LED chip on glass display at $4,000 or less by the early 2030s. Romanowitz sees TFT glass backplanes winning long term because PCB backplanes cost more.
LED overtakes LCD one segment at a time. Morris Garrard says LED passed LCD in video walls around 2020, will pass it in digital signage in 2025 and in presentation displays by 2028. LCD volumes persist while prices erode. K-12 classrooms will adopt LED more slowly than boardrooms.
COB fixed durability, leaving cost the barrier. COB encapsulation was perfected over the past two to three years. Modules are touchable and repairable, where touching 1.2 millimetre walls once needed a tray for falling pixels. Indoor brightness rose from 600 or 800 nits to 1,000 or 1,500. Dave Haynes calls COB good enough, and Romanowitz says price is what matters.
Giant LCDs run into installation limits. Haynes saw a 120 or 125 inch LCD at TCL's booth. Garrard says such panels cannot fit a lift to a fifth-floor European boardroom, which caps that niche. High brightness and outdoor LCD make up only 2 to 4 percent of volumes. OLED carries a 1.5 to 2 times premium and holds about 1 percent.
E-paper replaces print rather than LCD. Colour e-paper reached 75 inches at ISE. Haynes calls it proof of concept. Garrard sees it complementing LCD and doubts 16:9 or A-series sizes suit print replacement. Both agree E Ink pioneered colour e-paper that Samsung, Sharp and Agile Display Solutions largely remarket.
Projection shifts toward new applications. Garrard expects projection to be a multibillion dollar market by 2029 or 2030, with attention moving to uses like projection mapping on historic buildings.
Standout booths at ISE 2025
Romanowitz praised chip on board walls at Samsung and LG plus a 136 inch chip on glass demo at LG.
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On this episode 3
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He called the waterfall at the Lang booth incredibly cool but said the killer application for Samsung's transparent microLED is unclear.
LG's kinetic LED wall resembled a game show tile board and processed visitors' uploaded photos with AI. Another kinetic display Haynes saw broke down every half hour.
Garrard was struck by e-paper above 32 inches, including 75 inch models possibly at Dynascan.